Junior D’s Fantastic Four: Week 6

by Junior D on October 10, 2013 · 0 comments

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Last week was a push. I went 2-2 against the spread which isn’t good…it isn’t bad either. I have been trying to pick some of the more difficult games (larger spreads) so I guess a push isn’t so bad. My record through five weeks is 9-11. This week I will take another shot at a winning record for the week and for the season.

The Broncos game last week was the difference last week. They proved to me that their defense leaves something to be desired. They can’t defend the pass. Fortunately for them, they play a team that can’t throw or run the ball. The Texans also proved to me that they can’t put up the numbers in the passing game to win big anymore. They are also playing an average defense against the pass this week…we’ll see if they can get back on track. One thing is for sure, Matt Schaub will play with some intensity after a few fans accosted him and his family at their house this week. I hope he does so he can shut these crazy fans up.

Enough talk, let’s get to the picks…

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (+7.5)bengals bills

The Bengals defense has been very average looking this season but they have also faced off against QBs like Jay Cutler, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger. Look for them to stack the box and force the Bills recently promoted practice squad QB, Thad Lewis to throw the ball. Not only do the Bills have an inexperienced QB at the helm, their biggest receiving threat, Stevie Johnson, is listed as day to day after injuring his back last week. This could get out of hand quickly if Andy Dalton can play to his potential against the 21st ranked defense. If the Bills can’t get their running game going early they won’t even make this game competitive. The Bengals should win this game straight up and should win by at least two scores.

Interesting stat: The Bengals have only played the Bills once in the past three seasons and they are 1-0 ATS.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)

St. Louis Rams at Houston Texans (-7.5)rams texans

The Texans have gone through the worst stretch in the past two seasons to start the year off. Their defense hasn’t played as well as everyone thought and they have been terrible against the run. The good news is that the Rams offense ranks 29th in rush offense. On the other side of the ball, the Texans offense has struggled due to the poor play of Matt Schaub. Look for the Texans to come out with a run heavy offense against a Rams defense that ranks 26th against the run (giving up and average of 126 yards per game). The only thing that scares me is that the Texans haven’t covered a spread all season but the Rams haven’t covered a spread on the road…that’s a push in my books. I’ll be looking for the Texans to come out strong by running the ball and mixing in some safe passes to get Matt Schaub back on track. The Texans should get out to a good lead and continue to run the ball to hold that lead.

Interesting stat: Since 1992 the Texans are 35-17 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses.

Pick: Houston Texans (-7.5)

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (-26.5)jags broncos

The Broncos have set the league on fire with their offense this season. Their defense, on the other hand, has not looked quite as good. They looked terrible last week against the Cowboys. They rank 29th against the pass through five weeks, but they play the 29th ranked passing offense this week so they should look like world beaters against the Jags. The Jaguars are definitely the worst team I have ever seen and Vegas thinks so too. This is a huge spread but I think that the Broncos can put up a 28-0 victory if they roll out their 2nd stringers. This one wasn’t a question for me…the Broncos should win BIG. The only concern I have is in the second half. If they get up big early, which they should, they will most likely rest Peyton and many starters in the fourth quarter. If the Jags can pick up some garbage points in the fourth quarter this could be a loss for me…I’m not too concerned though.

Interesting stat: Denver is 13-3 ATS as a favorite and 8-1 ATS against teams with a losing record over the past 2 seasons.

Pick: Denver Broncos (-26.5)

Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks (-11.5)titans seahawks

I love big spreads! Even though the Seahawks have no passing game to speak of, their running game is very good. The Titans have 3-2 record due, in large part, to their defense. The Titans don’t play very well on the road against NFC teams, plus they have Ryan Fitzpatrick who is an interception machine. The Seahawks defense was embarrassed by the Colts last week so I’m looking for them to tighten up and have a field day with Fitz. They may have two defensive TDs this week. The Seahawks are also 2-0 ATS at home this season. Even though the spread is huge, the Seahawks play incredibly well at home. I don’t think the Titans have a chance in this game. This could get away from the Titans very quickly.

Interesting stat: The Seahawks are 17-6 ATS in all games and 9-1 ATS at home over the past two seasons.

Pick: Seattle Seahawks (-11.5)

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