Junior D’s Fantastic Four: Week 5

by Junior D on October 4, 2013 · 0 comments

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Week 4 was my break out week. I went 3-1 against the spread and I’m looking to build on that. With the first quarter of the season in the books I am sitting at 7-9. It’s not where I want to be but with a repeat performance of last week I will be above .500 for the season.

Many of my questions going into week 4 were answered. I learned Miami is not as good as their 3-0 record showed us. Jacksonville is really as bad as we all thought and if Denver keeps playing the way they have been, Peyton Manning could be looking at his 2nd Super Bowl ring. San Francisco is still the biggest question mark for me. I don’t know how they plan on being more consistent but right now they are not looking good.

We’ll learn more as the season progresses but, for now, let’s get to the picks!

Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans (+2.5)chiefs titans

The Chiefs have been quite the surprise this season. I knew they would be competitive but I would have never thought they would be 4-0 going into week 5. The Titans are also pretty competitive this year. They have quietly ended the first quarter of the season at 3-1. They are also 3-0-1 ATS so far. Even though Alex Smith doesn’t throw deep, Andy Reid has used all of the weapons at his disposal to dink and dunk their way to victories. Both teams have good defenses that can defend the pass but the Chiefs rank 22nd so far against the run. Enter Chris Johnson. The Titans will run the ball even more this week because Jake Locker will be out at least a few weeks with a sprained hip. Ryan Fitzpatrick will start for the Titans this Sunday. Fitz has been known to throw some bad interceptions…ask any Bills fan. This is where the game leans towards the Chiefs. If they can capitalize on Fitzpatrick’s poor decision making they will win this game by at least a touchdown.

Interesting stat: The Chiefs are 2-0 ATS when they are the away team and the Titans are 1-0-1 ATS as the home team

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-7.5)lions packers

The Lions are a dome team. Green Bay loves to play at home and they love playing on grass. Everything about this game is telling me that the Packers will win but will they win by 8? Here are a few stats that you’ll enjoy…the Packers are 14-5 ATS at home over the past 3 seasons. They are also 4-0 ATS against the Lions over the same time frame.  Also, the Lions haven’t beaten the Packers at home since December 15, 1991. Both offenses are averaging over 400 yards of total offense this season and neither team can defend the pass. That should be interesting to watch. The Lions speed on grass is also a concern. The Packers have their backs to the wall at 1-2 and should come out swinging. They have also had two weeks to prepare for the Lions since they got their bye week out of the way in week 4. Look for the Packers to win comfortably.

Interesting stat: The Packers have won 9 in a row at home…Aaron Rodgers has only thrown a total of 4 picks in those 9 games.

Pick: Green Bay Packers (-7.5)

Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts (+2.5)seahawks colts

On paper, these teams match up pretty evenly. Defensively, they are both good against the pass and average against the run. They both rank in the top five of rushing offenses. Seattle ranks 24th in passing offense and the Colts rank 22nd. That’s where the similarities end. Seattle is a hardnosed team that will punch you in the mouth and the Colts are more finesse. Both have young QBs that are extremely talented and can run the ball but I’ll take Marshawn Lynch over Trent Richardson in the RB battle. Seattle is also 4-0 ATS this season and the Colts are 2-2 (0-2 ATS at home). Seattle is also 18-7 ATS in games played on turf over the past three seasons. When the teams match up this closely on paper you have to look at stats and trends. The trends are all pointing in Seattle’s direction in this game.

Interesting stat: Seattle is 8-0 ATS when playing teams with winning records over the past two seasons.

Pick: Seattle Seahawks (-2.5)

Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys (+7.5)broncos cowboys

Peyton Manning has been on fire this season. He is off to the best start of his career and it seems as though no defense can stop him or the Broncos offense. The Cowboys defense rank 27th in pass defense and are tied with the Vikings and Giants as the worst in the league allowing 10 TD passes. That spells disaster for the Cowboys. The Broncos pass defense isn’t good either…they rank 30th overall against the pass, allowing 316yds per game through the air. This should be a shootout and if I had to take my best guess, I think Peyton beats Romo in that kind of game. The Broncos are on a roll and I don’t see the Cowboys putting an end to it. Even though the spread screams “PICK THE COWBOYS,” try to refrain from doing it. The Broncos are 10-1 ATS when they are favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points over the past two seasons. They are also 11-3 ATS after two or more consecutive wins over the past three seasons.

Interesting stat: The Broncos are 13-2 ATS as a favorite over the past two seasons.

Pick: Denver Broncos (-7.5)

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