Junior D’s Fantastic Four: Week 4

by Junior D on September 28, 2013 · 0 comments

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Last week’s picks were better than week 2 so I can’t complain too much…well, maybe I can. I came out of week three with more questions than answers. Are the Giants really that bad? Are the Dolphins really that good? Finally, will the Jaguars ever get better?

With those questions and much more circulating in my brain, I must reach my goal of 4-0 this week. No more talk about gut instinct or research. It’s go time and I will some through this week. Now that we are coming to the end of the first quarter of the season teams are starting to show their true colors and injuries are already creeping up and taking control of depth charts.

There have also been some QB changes around the league. Josh Freeman will take a seat and let the rookie, Mike Glennon, take his shot at trying to turn the Bucs offense around. The always mediocre Matt Cassel will be under center in Minnesota and if Terrelle Pryor can’t pass the concussion test then Matt Flynn will see his first regular season start since he lit the world on fire as a Packer, in a game that didn’t matter.

Enough of the jibba jabba…time for the picks!!!

Seattle Seahawks @ Houston Texans (+2.5)seahawks texans

The Houston Texans are 2-1 but those two wins did not look pretty. Their defense has played well (#2 overall through three weeks) but has only caused one turnover so far and Matt Schaub and the rest of this offense has looked bad…they have turned the ball over four times this season. Schaub has been given plenty of opportunities to take this offense to the next level and it hasn’t happened. Meanwhile, Seattle’s defense has looked very good…they made the 49ers offense look like a high school team two weeks ago. They are the league’s best defense and have forced 12 turnovers through three weeks this season. If the offense can play well on Sunday, Seattle will come away with the win.

Interesting stat: Seattle is 7-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.

Pick: Seattle Seahawks (-2.5)

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-3.5)bears lions

The Chicago Bears are 3-0 and Jay Cutler has been playing, well, very un-Jay Cutler-like. While 3-0 hasn’t been a new thing for the Bears, it has been 7 years since the Bears have gone 4-0. Coming into week 4 the Lions are a shaky 2-1. To say that the Lions have been inconsistent this season would be an understatement. They seem to be “all or nothing” when it comes to scoring. Both teams have a good defense against the run but lack in the pass defense category. This should be a fun game to watch. Cutler and Stafford should be able to throw the ball all over the field. This game will come down to turnovers. The Lions offense will have Reggie Bush back but Nate “the pizza man” Burleson will miss the game with a broken arm. That will limit the Lions against a Bears defense that has forced 14 turnovers in their last three games against the Lions.

Interesting stat: The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog.

Pick: Chicago Bears (+3.5)

Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos (-11.5)eagles broncos

The spread on this game is almost too high to go with the Broncos. On the other hand, the Broncos can score and Peyton Manning is playing out of his mind this season. The Broncos are averaging over 42 points per game and the Eagles defense can’t defend the pass. The Eagles offense can put up yards and points but it will have to be done through the air because the Broncos are only allowing just over 43 yards on the ground per game. Chip Kelly should bring a large note pad to the game because he’ll have a front row seat to watch Manning and the Broncos show him what his offense should look like. Since Kelly doesn’t believe in stopping anyone on defense (just like when he was at Oregon) this could get ugly very quickly.

Interesting stat: The Broncos are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall, 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games in September and 4-0 ATS against teams with losing records.

Pick: Denver Broncos (-11.5)

Washington Redskins at Oakland Raiders (+3.5)skins raiders

The one thing that any team can use to get their season back on track is a game against the Raiders. Especially this week because it looks like Terrelle Pryor won’t be playing after getting his bell rung against the Broncos. That means Matt Flynn should get the nod as the starter. RGIII looked better last week but he is still a far cry from what he looked like last year. The Redskins defense also ranks in the bottom of the league but they are playing the Raiders. As long as the Skins offensive line can keep RGIII off of his ass they should come out on top. If Flynn does get the start he shouldn’t be as much of a threat as Pryor because he can’t run and extend plays. This would be an easy pick last season but with RGIII looking rusty it should be closer…but not close enough to pick the Raiders.

Interesting stat: Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.

Pick: Washington Redskins (-3.5)

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