Last week’s 1-3 record was not what I was expecting. I guess you’re never prepared to have a losing record if you have any sort of competitive streak in you. That’s why this week I’m ready to get my shit together and get back on track.
Since the Browns were the only team to show me any love last week, I would’ve taken them in week 10 as well. Unfortunately they are on a bye. I’ll have to look for another lucky rabbit’s foot to get me through another tough week of picks in the NFL.
St. Louis Rams at Indianapolis Colts (-9.5)
The Rams, even without Bradford at QB, aren’t as bad as everyone thinks they are. They have a good defense that can keep them in games and their running game is good (when their RBs are healthy). Just look at their game against the Seahawks. Even though the Colts are at home they are giving up a lot of points and I’m not sure how their offense will do against a Rams defense that has been playing pretty well lately. The Colts should win this game but it all comes down to the big question…BY HOW MANY POINTS? I think that Andrew Luck gets it done in the fourth quarter but they only win by 8.
Pick: St. Louis Rams (+9.5)
Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
I know the Steelers haven’t played well this season but their offense is starting to come around. The Bills aren’t the Patriots either so this one seems like a no brainer. The Steelers defense looks old and slow but they are 4th overall against the pass. Unfortunately they are 30th against the run and the Bills can run the ball. If the Bills have any shot it will be by running the ball well to start and throwing in some play action to draw the Steelers defense in. I don’t really think they have the ability to execute against the Steelers defense though. Maybe I’m giving them too much credit but something tells me the Steelers are turning the corner, albeit a little too late to save their season.
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (+7.5)
The San Diego Chargers are getting better but like I mentioned on the podcast last week, they aren’t ready for primetime just yet. They can’t seem to finish in the fourth quarter. They are still making dumb mistakes to lose games late. When you have that problem, the worst team you can play is the Denver Broncos. Peyton Manning and the Broncos are coming off of a bye week and are well rested. Playing in warm weather is exactly what Peyton needs too. He’ll be nice and loose for this game. If the Broncos defense can play a little better they can win this game by at least 17. Unfortunately they aren’t improving quickly enough. The Broncos win this game but it won’t be by 17. Their defense will keep the Chargers close until the fourth quarter. That’s when the Chargers implode…people who take the Broncos will sweat this one out until the end but they’ll cover.
Pick: Denver Broncos (-7.5)
Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5)
With all of the turmoil in the Dolphins front office and locker room you would think that this would be a perfect time for them to look past the Buccaneers. Many people are speculating that the Bucs will get their first win on Monday night. I am not one of those people. Teams in these situations tend to band together in an “us against the world” mentality and this will be no different. They will enter Monday night without two of their starting offensive linemen though. While the Dolphins are a mess off the field, the Bucs have been a mess everywhere. The only bright spot is that they have let Derrelle Revis finally play some man coverage and it has paid off. He’ll most likely cover Mike Wallace so look for Brian Hartline to have a good game. Dolphins’ fans should try to enjoy this game because things do not look good in Miami right now.
Pick: Miami Dolphins (+2.5)